AFL 2023 Predicted Ladder: Round 24 match, all possible endings

The Western Bulldogs faced one of the worst losses of any side this year, but their season is still alive and well while the final standings are still up for grabs on the ladder.

Here are the final predictions for where each team will end up, plus each club’s best and worst case scenario.

1. COLLINGWOOD

Won: 17, Lost: 5, Points: 68, Percentage: 123.2

Craig McRae was clear after a defeat on Friday night that there are issues to sort out before the final, but the Magpies should go there with the minor premiership in tow. A defeat against a shaken Essendon would be a huge surprise and only an unfathomable percentage change with Port Adelaide could see the Magpies lose a home final. It is virtually impossible. The Pies will most likely host Melbourne at the MCG in a qualifying final, hardly home-field advantage.

2. LIONS OF BRISBANE

Won: 16, Lost: 6, Points: 64, Percentage: 123.2

Only twice, 2001 and 2002, have the Brisbane Lions won 17 games in a season, so a win against St Kilda would seal one of the club’s best two-way campaigns. A win would also seal a qualifying final at home, a great result for Chris Fagan’s side. If they lose on Saturday, both Melbourne and Port Adelaide could topple the Lions and send them to the MCG for a qualifying final.

3. PORT ADELAIDE

Won: 16, Lost: 6, Points: 64, Percentage: 111.5

An important win for Port Adelaide over Fremantle on Sunday keeps hopes of a home final alive. The percentage makes it almost impossible for the Power to jump to the top spot, even if Collingwood and Brisbane lose. It looks like they’ll be on their way to start the finals.

4. MELBOURNE

Won: 15, Lost: 7, Points: 56, Percentage: 124.8

Melbourne survived a bit of a scare from Hawthorn on Sunday to clinch a place in the top four. In the worst case, the Demons will finish fourth. If Port Adelaide and Brisbane lose, Melbourne could climb to second place and secure a final at home. The Demons will likely play at the MCG against the Magpies in a qualifying final. Who do you bet?

5. CARLTON

Won: 13, Lost: 8, Draw: 1, Points: 54, Percentage: 116.1

Melbourne’s win over Hawthorn on Sunday closed the door on Carlton’s top four, a phrase that would have been unbelievable just 10 weeks ago. The Blues will close out the season by hosting the Giants, a game that GWS will have to win to reach the final, so the stakes will be high. The stakes will be high for Carlton too – if St Kilda win, Sydney win and make a sufficient percentage, and the Blues lose, Carlton could drop to seventh and have to travel to play the Swans in a knockout final.

6.ST KILDA

Won: 13, Lost: 9, Points: 52, Percentage: 108.9

Ross Lyon was right all along when he said the ladder wasn’t lying, even if we doubted him. The saints are destined for September. They were almost certainly on the way, but that was assured Sunday when the Bulldogs lost to the West Coast. A win over the Lions on Saturday would ensure a home final, which could prove crucial with two Sydney-based teams holding out hope.

7. SYDNEY

Won: 12, Lost: 9, Draw: 1, Points: 50, Percentage: 111.6

It really wasn’t all that long ago that an interchange offense free kick saw Sydney cross the line against North Melbourne. A loss that day would have left Sydney sitting with a 3-7 record and the season all but over. But once again, John Longmire has found a way. Who would want to meet the Swans in the final series? A goal referee error helped, but Saturday night’s win against Adelaide was set up early and puts the Swans in the box. A win over Melbourne on Sunday and a home final is a possibility. Lose and GWS could overtake the Swans.

8. GIANTS OF GWS

Won: 12, Lost: 10, Points: 48, Percentage: 105.6

How hard did the Giants cheer on the Eagles on Sunday? GWS will know what the state of the game is when the ball bounces for the final game of the year against Carlton. It is possible that the Giants will beat St Kilda or Sydney but GWS will focus on what the Bulldogs do against Geelong on Saturday night. If the Dogs don’t beat the Cats, the Giants are in. Otherwise, they will have to beat the Blues.

9. WESTERN BULLDOGS

Won: 11, Lost: 11, Points: 44, Percentage: 107.6

What a disastrous fortnight. The Bulldogs were essentially locked in the finals just two weeks ago with games against Hawthorn and West Coast to come, but they dropped the hit. Now the Dogs can only make it if they beat Geelong for the first time in six tries and GWS lose to Carlton. How could you tip the dogs next week? In reality, the Dogs simply don’t deserve to play endgames.

10. ESENDON

Won: 11, Lost: 11, Points: 44, Percentage: 92.7

Yes, it’s mathematically possible for the Dons to make it to the Finals, but they have to take back a game and 13 percent from the Giants while waiting for the Dogs to lose. So, it’s actually not that possible. Essendon’s heartbreaking crush at the hands of GWS really ended the season, but fans will want a strong showing in the final round against Collingwood.

11.GEELONG

Won: 10, Lost: 11, Draw: 1, Points: 42, Percentage: 114.7

Chris Scott has never had a losing season as Cats manager: 2015 was the only other time since he took over in 2011 that Geelong missed spikes, and that year the Cats went 11-9-1. A win over the Dogs would at least put the level on the books, but the finals went up in smoke on Saturday night in a dismal effort against the Saints. Geelong have not finished a season lower than 10th in the standings since finishing 12th in 2003.

12.RICHMOND

Won: 10, Lost: 11, Draw: 1, Points: 42, Percentage: 94.9

Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt’s farewell tour on Saturday was a beauty. But it’s hard to see the Tigers having so much fun this week on the road against the Power. Richmond can’t make the eight from here.

13. ADELAIDE

Won: 10, Lost: 12, Points: 40, Percentage: 115.1

Look away now, Adelaide fans: if Ben Keays’ snap had been properly called a goal (and the Crows held for the last minute against the Swans), we would have made them make all eight. That’s how thin the margin has been for the Ravens this year. Adelaide may move up to ninth in the final round, but only if Geelong and the Bulldogs manage to tie.

14. FREMANTO

Won: 9, Lost: 13, Points: 36, Percentage: 94.6

Fremantle pushed Port Adelaide all the way on Sunday, a loss that likely rules out finishing 13th. Just one big percentage change could see the Power top the Ravens, who take on the West Coast in the final round.

15. GOLD COAST

Won: 9, Lost: 13, Points: 36, Percentage: 93

Heading to Tasmania to beat North Melbourne isn’t absolutely certain, but the Suns should do it. They did a lot of things right against the Blues, but they just couldn’t stop Charlie Curnow. A win over the Roos would equal 2022 and 2014 for the most wins in a season in club history.

16. HAWTHORN

Won: 7, Lost: 15, Points: 28, Percentage: 81.2

The only team that can’t move in the final week of the season, the Hawks will remain in 16th place no matter what. Getting to eight wins would be a solid achievement for Sam Mitchell’s side and they deserve to be favorites at home against Fremantle.

17. WEST COAST

Won: 3, Lost: 19, Points: 12, Percentage: 52.5

What a result for Adam Simpson and the Eagles. The surprise over the Dogs could have saved the coach’s job and it could have saved the club from the wooden spoon, too. That means West Coast will miss out on the No. 1 pick and Harley Reid, but that could be the best result for everyone involved. Sunday’s win meant the Eagles cannot match last year for the worst season in club history.

18. NORTH MELBOURNE

Won: 2, Lost: 20, Points: 8, Percentage: 68.7

What does it say about North Melbourne that the Roos will now likely end up below the hopeless West Coast? Unless the Roos beat the Suns in Tassie (certainly possible), they’ll get their third consecutive wooden spoon, a streak we haven’t seen since Sydney in the early 1990s. North should at least sign Harley Reid.

Originally published as AFL 2023: Predicted final standings and possible finish for each team